Increase in temperature will intensify melting of the Central Asian glaciers, and as the result the seasonal runoff of rivers in the region will likely decrease in the long run. Climate change would also affect hydrological cycle of the rivers by shifting peak of the inter-annual runoff to early months. On the other hand, water flow in the summer months will decrease, which would have implications for agriculture. Therefore, we must be ready for this.
These are main conclusions from Dr. Abror Gafurov, a researcher from the German Research Center for Geophysical Sciences - "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology in Central Asia." His presentation contains the results of a study on trends in summer temperatures in Central Asia, data on the degradation of glaciers from the 1970s, a comparative analysis of climate change scenarios in the Pamirs and Tien Shan, an assessment of the impact of climate on water resources in the basins of the Naryn, Karadarya and Zeravshan.
Central Asia Climate Knowledge Series are facilitated by the "Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin" (CAMP4ASB)