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International consulting firms (“Consultants”) on Climate projections and climate risks assessment


Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB)

Terms of Reference

for International consulting firms (“Consultants”) on

Climate projections and climate risks assessment

1.      Background

On November 3, 2015, the World Bank Board of Executive Directors approved an allocation of US$38 million from the International Development Association (IDA) to finance the first phase of the CAMP4ASB regional program. This approved financing includes US$9 million for Tajikistan, US$14 million for Uzbekistan, and US$15 million for regional activities to be implemented by the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC-IFAS) with support from the Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia (CAREC) for day-to-day regional coordination and implementation.

The Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) aims to enhance regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian countries as well as to increased investments and capacity building that, combined, will address climate challenges common to these countries. CAMP4ASB[1] is comprised of three components as follows:

Component 1: Regional Climate Knowledge Services

Component 2: Regional Climate Investment Facility

Component 3: Regional and National Coordination

To strengthen the knowledge and capacity base for climate action and facilitate regional dialogue and multi-stakeholder engagement for an effective climate response at scale

To provide financing and technical assistance to rural communities for climate-smart investments that will generate lessons and experience for scaled-up climate action in priority areas common to all Central Asian countries

For oversight, coordination, and implementation support at regional and national levels

Activities:

1.1. Strengthening the Information Platform for Central Asia

1.2. Targeted upgrading of climate-related monitoring systems

1.3. Developing methodologies, approaches, and tools for decision support

1.4. Developing knowledge products

1.5. Building capacity

1.6. Setting up a Climate Investment Assessment Mechanism

1.7. Outreach and coalition building

Subcomponents:

2.1. Investment Financing

2.2. Capacity Building and Community Support

Subcomponents:

3.1 Regional Coordination

3.2 National Coordination

This Terms of Reference has been elaborated in response to recommendation from the Regional Steering Committee (RSC) of the project to provide support to the project national counterparts in accelerating their interventions on Activity 1.6. “Setting up a Climate Investment Assessment Mechanism”.

2.    Objective(s) of the Assignment

The main objective of the assignment is to conduct science-based climate risks assessment on local level over three preliminarily selected pilot areas in Central Asia – Isfara river basin (Tajikistan),

Aspara river basin (Kazakhstan) and Chimbay district of Karakalpakistan (Uzbekistan)[2].The output of this assignment will at later stages allow i) to assess climate vulnerability on the pilot territories, ii) to identify most appropriate technologies and practices given the determined climate risks, which would consequently contribute to elaboration of assessment mechanism for investments under Component 2 of the Project (Regional Climate Investment Facility), iii) to integrate climate risks into any local development plan (e.g. river basin management plan), iv) define capacity needs for climate downscaling and assessment of climate risks.  

3.      Scope of Services, Tasks (Components) and Expected Deliverables

3.1 Three focus pilot areas in Central Asia will be determined during initial stage of the assignment and after consultations between RCU, NCUs and the International Consultant. The International Consultant, will contribute to improving existing framework for climate risks assessment on local level by conducting climate modelling and identifying key climate risks over selected pilot areas. The International Consultant will be assisted by national partners of the Project, in retrieval of needed hydro-meteorological data,

Specific tasks:

·         To generate near to long term climate projections over selected pilot areas, with small transboundary river basins, in Central Asian countries under different plausible climate scenarios.

·         To identify and assess key climate change implications for the selected pilot areas with respect to water resources management, irrigated agriculture and disaster management.

·         To assess existing climate change related information resources and database management systems and procedures in place, as well as existing technical and physical capacities for climate modelling;

·         To identify main capacity and information needs at local/national level for improved climate modeling and downscaling studies.

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Task

Deliverables:

Timeline:

1

To develop methodological approach towards the assignment, based on stock-taking on pilot territories, data availability, etc

A concept note describing finalized approach towards implementation of the assignment, containing information on proposed approaches for climate risks modelling, degree of spatial resolution to be used in the study, respective data requirements and sources,

7 days

2

To generate near and long term climate projections over selected pilot areas, with small transboundary river basins in Central Asian countries under different plausible climate scenarios.

A summary and results of dynamical and statistical downscaling for a time horizon of 2030-2050-2100, based on a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) representing low, medium and high GHG emissions;

A brief summary and results of hydrological projections for a selected river basins on a pilot territories based on climate projections;

20 days

3

To identify and assess key climate change implications for the selected pilot areas

A summary of key climate change implications and risks identified under the projections for hydrological cycle, (irrigated) agriculture, pastures and disaster management on the selected pilot areas;

A final report summarizing all previous outputs of the consultant

15 days

4

To identify main capacity and information needs at local/national level for improved climate modeling and downscaling studies.

Gap analysis (a brief report) on main informational and technical needs of national partners of the Project for improved climate downscaling techniques and climate risks assessment on local level

8 days

4.      Team Composition & Qualification Requirements for the Key Experts

Experience:

·           Demonstrated expertise in climate projections and climate risks assessments (experience of working with GCMs from CMIP5, using multiple downscaling techniques)

·           Experience in modelling climate risks for hydrological systems;

·           Excellent analytical skills and ability to write-up assessment reports/overviews.

Personal qualities:

·           Applicants must demonstrate enthusiasm for, and commitment, to sustainable development and environmental management.

·           Excellent team-player.

·           Evidence of strong analytical skills, and problem identification and solving.

·           Ability and willingness to travel to countries of Central Asia.

Communication and computer skills:

·           Good communication and networking skills, ability to translate research findings into clear messages for practitioners and policy makers.

·           Fluency in written and spoken English. Spoken knowledge of Russian is advised.

5.      Reporting Requirements and Time Schedule for Deliverables

The estimated duration of the consultancy will be April – June 2017 with the possibility of the contract renewal. Tentative number of working days is up to 50.

The Consultant shall report to the CAMP4ASB RCU Climate Change Specialist.




[1] For more details about the project and description of all components and subcomponents please, refer to the CAMP4ASB Project Appraisal Document (PAD)


[2] Pilot territories may change after further discussion between the stakeholders, taking into account prospective suggestions from the International Consultant



All interested candidates may review the detailed Terms of References and submit their Expressions of interest to Sanzhar Mustafin at smustafin@carececo.org and camp4asb@carececo.org not later than March 28, 2017.

Please note that only short listed candidates will be contacted.